Sunday, September 21, 2008

Economic implications of the Nuclear Deal

This one is an essay which I tried to submit for Artha. but as I was busy with many things I failed to complete it on time and so I am putting this up on this blog. The topic was

“Will 123 Agreement in the realm of Foreign policy bring 'Economic Crisis' to the Indian Economy?"

“Will 123 Agreement in the realm of Foreign policy bring 'Economic Crisis' to the Indian Economy?"
Is this a question? Or is it a naked, wanton derision of the capabilities of this nation and its people. Or is it one more of those attempts to stultify the growth of this country by sowing seeds of doubt in our minds about our own capacities.
We have been down this road once and heard these voices before. It is time that we should shed our fear of outside world. India was and will become a great trader in global market.
Now this debate is not about whether should India go for nuclear energy or not. We are focusing on 123 Agreement and its impact on our economy. So I will not put any arguments on whether should we have nuclear energy or not, or whether it is cost effective. It is given that we are going for nuclear technology.
The economic benefits from this agreement will centre around two things
1) It will provide India access to “dual-use technologies” which, can be used to make nuclear weapons, but also are used to in industry. Right now these technologies are outside the reach of Indian industry thus placing India Inc. at a very serious disadvantage.
2) It will allow, in near future and provided that we take good policy measures to emerge as big global nuclear equipments and expertise manufacturer and supplier. Indeed if past is any indication, we might become a big outsourcing hub for nuclear industry as well.
Starting from the first point, right now Indian industry has access only to so-called “sunset technologies”, technologies which are no longer competitive. Most of the advanced technologies are denied to Indian manufacturing units at present. The biggest gains will be made in IT and software sector. As of now most of the advanced technologies in these areas are denied to Indian companies. High performance computing systems are unavailable to us. This denial forced the development of PARAM-10000, but private sector companies cannot re-invent the wheel every time they want to make a leap in terms of technology. These high performance computing systems have contributed to advancements in many diverse fields such as IC-development, weather forecasting, simulation of traffic accidents, weapons design, seismic predictions and drug design etc.
Then the industry in general, across all sectors, will benefit as it will be able to import components which were prohibited due to technology denial regime. Digital phosphor oscilloscopes, which are indispensable for oil refineries and electronics industry, also have a nuclear role and are currently barred — but will now be available. Filamentary poles, important for making tennis rackets, golf clubs and fishing poles, are also inaccessible because they can be used for uranium enrichment. Compressors, testing systems, furnaces for power generation, mining equipment, high-voltage power supplies, industrial and scientific equipment like heat exchangers, pipings, fittings, valves, measuring and calibrating equipment... Many of these have applications in different sectors and access to them would give Indian manufacturing a huge boost.
There is also technology and scientific research that relates to civilian applications in medicine, radiology and industry. In the field of medicine, X-ray imagers that use cobalt-60 may soon become accessible. So will specialised equipment for oil and gas exploration. Nuclear well-logging is used by advanced countries to help predict the commercial viability of new and existing oil and gas wells, and it could become available in India as well.
Communications switching equipment, certain types of electronic equipment, lower speed photography equipment, pressure-measuring instruments, and numerically controlled machine tools — much of all this is currently out of bounds for India's knowledge economy.
Also in the Defence and space areas India’s will have more choices. It can get a free hand to purchase weapon systems previously restricted, especially surveillance systems, electronic reconnaissance, navigation, military meteorology, nuclear explosion detection and missile defence capabilities. The range of Brahmos might get increased beyond 300 km.
Also Indian entities will get to participate in international research and development processes, which is currently difficult due to restrictions placed on entities and individuals. Especially significant will be possibilities in areas which involve multidisciplinary research like biotechnology, nanotechnology all of which are today controlled and restricted technologies. The nuclear deal will make it easier for Indians to compete on a more level field.
But still the benefits just do not stop here only. There is something which has not been given much attention. The deal may lead to a process where India will end up becoming a major manufacturing hub of global nuclear industry. Our strength in engineering and low-cost manufacturing will surely make this possible. Once our nuclear isolation ends we can become major exporter of nuclear equipment. Now sceptics will laugh at this but remember there were people around in 1991 who said that once the economy opens up, Indian companies will soon become sub-ordinates to global companies and Indian industry will become colonized. But now we are into an era of Indian MNC’s. There are many Indian companies who are market leaders in their fields. And they are acquiring foreign giants like Corus and Jaguar. The same can happen in nuclear industry also.
Global majors are now establishing their R&D hubs in India. Intel recently released its latest chip developed entirely in India. Renault is its small car in collaboration with engineers of Bajaj.
Now if we take a look at global nuclear industry today, practically all the reactors in operation were made before Chernobyl occurred. Nuclear industry grew very slowly (most of the growth from China) due to Chernobyl and Three-Mile incidents. But now high oil and gas prices and the prospect of an oil-peak in near future has forced nations to do a relook at this option.
Now if this new demand for nuclear power is to be met then a massive manufacturing capacity for nuclear equipment has to be developed. To make sure that the costs stay low, as installation costs are high for nuclear power, part of the manufacturing capacities will have to be located in countries with low costs and high engineering skills, and this is where India will play a big role.
We already have companies who have long been involved in domestic nuclear programme. They have a pool of trained people as well as capacities. They can on their own or with foreign collaborations get technical know-how as well as scale up their capacities. As they develop, Indian companies will develop the imported designs and indigenise them, they will cut costs and improve them. And slowly will become world class themselves. They can then go out and compete with the best in global arena. This story is not new and they have done it earlier in many fields.
Once India becomes a global hub of nuclear equipment manufacturing, it will transform strategic realities. We will then no longer be at receiving end of “sanctions”, as they will be rendered ineffective by the fact that equipment and parts will be manufactured in India by Indians. Even if we conduct the tests, as many politicians on the right side believe we will not be able to do once the agreement comes into force, the sanctions imposed against us will carry no meaning, with most of the manufacturing of nuclear parts and industry taking place in India. It will be “US” who will be in the position of dictating the terms of these sanctions. This will be a truly remarkable moment.

Saturday, September 20, 2008


Kommu to Choke: Which cycle have you got maccha?
Choke: ???????
Kommu: I mean life cycle, bicycle, bio geochemical cycle,..............................................................menstrual cycle .....which one ?
Choke: Noooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!

Friday, September 12, 2008

Gaumutra Story (The Cow Pee Story)

There was he again…..once again the same Vedic agriculture thing. The ultimate remedy for all problems plaguing the Indian agriculture. Yes, use all the old methods, cleverly disguised as organic farming and return to same good old days. That set us thinking if indeed we were to follow his advice and India starts using Gaumutra instead of all those insecticides, then what it would exactly look like.
The following post contains much use(less)ful (mis)information; however, We cannot vouch for the effectiveness of the information. Therefore, all risks must be born personally. Please consult a agriculturist before employing anything. We have also played with facts and figures, for making this more humorous.
Here is a future scenario………………….

Times of India, 20th January 2010, New Delhi

Eminent Agriculturist Shree Gobardhan Govigyaan Pashupriya has published a path breaking study , in which he has effectively shown that if Cow urine is used as an insecticide , then the total agricultural yield of this nation will shoot up by an astounding 11%, a boost in agricultural production unseen and unparalleled in Indian agriculture.
Talking to Times of India he said “our study has showed that Gaumutra, when used as an insecticide, kills insects and worms in fields and also gives the crops a natural immunity against insects and pests. Me and my fellow researchers conducted a 2-year long study and finally came at the following conclusions. All our findings are backed by hard scientific analysis and data. We conducted these experiments over an area of 300 acres and the results were excellent. The Process of manufacture is very simple: Put nirgudi (English: Five leaves chaste, Latin: Vitex negundo) Leaves, flower and stems 100 gm, in cow urine. Let it decay for 20 days. Then crush the solids and filter it. By spraying this solution, the insects and worms in the fields are destroyed. If it is sprayed in advance then their attack can be prevented.”
“The increases in yield were uniform across all kinds of agricultural produce, thus showing that the results were not limited to any particular variety of crop. The results of the research have been sent to agriculture ministry and it is expected that the ministry will soon come up with an India wide plan for using cow-pee as insecticide, thus relieving us of many problems, seen and unseen, caused by artificial pesticides and insecticides designed and developed by maniac western scientists and thrust upon us by equally maniacal agricultural experts and profit seeking companies. “
He added further that the discovery will make the farmers more independent, will reduce their costs, give them higher produce at lower cost and also reduce the labour required. This will lead to higher profits and thus greater agricultural prosperity. This prosperity will lead to higher rate of growth for this nation and thus the holy Gau Mata will again bring prosperity to India. This economic progress will increase our might and just as the Sage Vashishtha was able to fight and defeat the mighty armies of Vishwamitra, we will be able to challenge the might of China and USA. We will achieve total food security and also be able to export food. And in the current scenario where the world is suffering from food shortages, this will give us a unique instrument of exercising strategic influence. We will become like OPEC. We can establish an OFEC(Organization of Food Exporting Countries) and an OGEC(Organization of Gaumutra Exporting Country). The world will depend on us for food. Thus the holy cow mother will take our nation to the top of the world.
Our sources added that the government is very serious about the research and may soon come out with a package for the large scale use of cow urine (Gaumutra)

Times of India, 1st April 2010, New Delhi
The Union Government has declared a 20000 Rupees crore package under National Scheme for Promotion of Gaumutra as Insecticide for Promotion of Organic Farming for Agricultural Prosperity for Economic Progress(NSPGIPOFAPEP). The purpose of the scheme is to stop the use insecticides and pesticides in agriculture completely and to replace them with Gaumutra.
The scheme is expected to provide a boost to domestic agriculture sector, boost employment opportunities, increase savings, reduce input costs, decrease environmental pollution, boost food grain output, increase exports, reduce imports, provide more food security, boost dairy industry, lead to betterment of cows , reduce suicides among farmers and also have many unseen benefits. The ministry release said that the scheme is expected to be a win-win case for all. The scheme would be launched across the entire nation.
The industrial units producing chemicals, which will be soon replaced by cow-urine (Gaumutra), will be adequately compensated and incentives will be given to them to move to production of other materials, preferably change their production techniques to suit this new bovine domination. It is expected that some of these industries will shut down, but there will be new employment opportunities which will offset the effects of their closure.
The scheme also provides for creation of infrastructure as there will be need for transportation, storage, testing and many other services and facilities, which will make sure that the plan goes ahead without a glitch.

Times of India, 2nd April 2010, New Delhi

The details of the recently unveiled National Scheme for Promotion of Gaumutratm as Insecticide for Promotion of Organic Farming for Agricultural Prosperity for Economic Progress (NSPGIPOFAPEP) have been made public by the agriculture ministry. The plan highlights are as follows:

  1. Production: India’s total food grain production is nearly 250 million tonnes. This is expected to reach 350 million tonnes in next few decades. Considering the fact that the insecticide: crop ratio has to be 1:10 i.e. to produce hundred kg’s of food crop, 10 kg of cow-pee(now onwards referred to as Gaumutra) insecticide is needed, India’s total consumption demand for Gaumutra will be 25 million tonnes now (for food grains only) . If this is implemented across all kind of agricultural products then our consumption of Gaumutra would be 120 million tonnes now and 220 million tonnes in near future. India has a total cattle population of 300 million. It is expected that the cattle population will stay more or less stable around this figure. The annual discharge of Gaumutra is around 540 million tonnes (each cow @ 5 litres a day). Out of this total, roughly 50% is recoverable. Thus India is self sufficient in its current and future consumption demand of the holy liquid. We will need to increase this production so as to able to export also. As increase in cattle head is not possible due to pressure on land and other factors, the only way out is to increase the yield per cow. Further research needs to be done in this area, to increase the recovery percentage. The government will allocate funds and resources for increasing the Gaumutra recovery percentage(GRP) per cow.
  2. Transportation and Distribution: Since our country is not blessed with a uniform distribution of the God’s own animal, we will set up a transportation network for India-wide distribution of Gaumutra. As transportation by roads or railways will add up to fuel bill and also increase green-house emissions, an all-India network of pipelines connecting major agricultural centres with areas having high cattle population will be established. The network will have pumping stations, small and big, at town, tehsil, taluk, village, district, and block level. The pumping stations will also function as feeder and distributor points, where the Gaumutra will be pumped in or pumped out depending upon, whether area has excess or deficiency of Gaumutra. The farmers will come to the point and using smart cards they can either pump in the liquid or take it out. An all-India Gaumutra Grid (GG) (like power grid) will manage the flow across different areas. The electricity required to run these stations can be obtained by establishing Gobar Gas Electricity Plants (GGEP), near pumping stations located in excess cattle population areas. Any excess production can be fed into national grid. Thus the holy cow will once again provide a combined solution to our food and fuel needs.
  3. Application: The farmers need to be educated on the use of Gaumutra as insecticide. This will not be too much difficult, as our glorious farming history shows that we have practiced these agricultural methods since time immemorial, until the invasion of modern techniques and western culture. Our farmers have traditionally used cow products in agriculture and produced massive yields which were able to sustain the nation in ancient times. We only need to remind them of old techniques. We have organic farming experts and activists like Vandana Shiva, who can be roped in to spread this message of returning to old and organic ways of farming. Since the costs are low, the farmers will take this up readily.
  4. Quality Control Issues: Proper measures will be taken to ensure that the quality of Gaumutra supplied is pure as well as that owners take a good care of their cows. This will be done through local level panchayats and distribution centres. Cards will be given to owners who supply the holy liquid. Their performance will be monitored. Government teachers and other staff at local level will be given responsibility to make people aware as well as ensure that procedures are implemented properly.
    These are the policy measures and objectives right now. Government will come up with further rules and regulations, as needed. It is expected that this will bring another green revolution to India as well as solve many of our problems.

Times of India, 2nd April 2012, Unnao

In an early morning raid UP Police in an operation conducted jointly with CBI, arrested 12 persons along with 4 tonnes of banned substance GAU-40X. The group is supposed to be part of a larger network of traffickers of the banned substance.
UP has recently a spate of incidents in which people were caught using these chemicals which are capable of converting any kind of animal urine into the holy Gaumutra and sell it for use as an insecticide. In past people have been caught using horse, pig, donkey, goat, dog, human, sheep, rabbit, buffalo, ox, communist, monkey, mule urine along with cow urine or sometimes a mixture of all these in water and give the mixture a treatment with the substance GAU-40X . The substance is capable of making any urinary mixture or concoction look, taste, feel, smell, react and chemically behave like Gaumutra. It is reported that the substance was developed by a former chemical engineer working with a chemical factory, which was shut down once the Gaumutra was introduced as insecticide. These incidents not only raise questions about effectiveness of Gaumutra being sold by GG (Gaumutra Grid), but also whether the recent decrease seen in total production in UP could be attributed to this.
Police is working on the case and has revealed that the activity is being carried out on a large scale and if not tackled right now then this might spread through entire nation.

Meanwhile, agriculture ministry has promised to bring out a stringent quality control legislation for controlling these cases of adulteration. Speaking to media in Delhi agriculture minister Bovde Powor said “anybody found mixing any other substance into Gaumutra would be put behind bars.” Reacting to reports that in some places human urine collected from public urinals is being sold off as Gaumutra, he said these are all baseless allegations against his ministry by opposition. “They are trying to get some election issues and controversies, since they fear I will once again win in Vidharbha. But public is clever enough to see through their designs, and will never let them succeed”.

He added further “Friends, cow is our holy mother, very holy. We should not let our greed disturb the holiness of her sacred urine. We should use it wisely, this gift of God. It is a proven fact that the properties of cow’s holy urine remain unaffected by the presence of such other lowly urines, and it has natural cleansing ability like Ganga water but nevertheless we should not treat it in such a manner. My ministry will soon come up with rules and regulations for this problem”.

Times of India, 2nd July 2012, Meerut

The ongoing farmer’s agitation took a violent turn when police fired upon a group of farmers agitating against the high prices of Gaumutra. The incident took place on Delhi- Meerut highway, 35 kms away from capitol, when farmers sitting on a ‘dharna’ suddenly blocked the highway and started pelting passing vehicles with stones and bricks. Three state buses were torched. Police stepped in to control the situation. The protesters clashed with police and police fired upon protesters. 5 farmers have been killed and condition of other 4 is critical.
Farmers are protesting against the high prices of Gaumutra. The kharif season and the rising demand has seen the price of Gaumutra rise. The farmers blame the government, as since it has allowed GG (Gaumutra Grid) to trade the commodity in futures market, the price is headed northwards. Government says that it is only making sure that the producers get the right price. Actually the real culprits are black marketers and hoarders who bought large quantities of Gaumutra during lean seasons when, due to harvest season the commodity was not in much demand, and are now making heavy profits by selling it or transferring their right of procurement. Thus they are making lots of cash without ever having to see, smell, transport, and feel the actual stuff. The high price of the bovine liquid has led to farms debts and suicides, thus defeating the very purpose for which this was introduced.

The farmer leader Shree Govind Gau Bovikait has demanded that the commodities market be banned totally, all the black marketers put behind bars and farmers be given a compensation package to tide them over in this period of crisis. He has threatened to block all train routes coming out of Delhi and spread his agitation to other parts of country. “As long as farmers suffer, we will not let anyone sleep peacefully, we will bring everyone and everything to a stop. Until the government listens to our demands we will carry on with this stir”.

Times of India, 10th July 2012, Bovpur
The chauvinist and aggressive Bovrath politician Gow Bovery has blamed the rising number of suicides and decreasing farm yields on discrimination being meted out to Bovrath Volk (Bovrath people in Bovrathi language). He said that since GG is maintained and controlled by North Indians (especially people from UP and Bihar, as alleged by Bovrath Building Brigade’s mouthpiece “Confrontation”), they are discriminating against Bovrath by supplying them with inferior quality Gaumutra or supplying them with some other urine disguised chemically as Gaumutra.
His supporters have since gone on a rampage. They have targeted pipelines carrying Gaumutra. They have blocked the supply of Gaumutra and also disturbed the collection of Gaumutra at pumping stations, alleging that they are being deprived of their fair share by central government. Gow Bovery is expected to lead mass protests and demonstrations over this planned agricultural deprivation of Bovrath by supplying out all its produce of Gaumutra to northern states like UP and Bihar.
In an editorial published in “Confrontation” he said “Bovrath is being denied its fair share of Gaumutra. The situation is critical and finally Bovrath Volk has risen up against this discrimination. They will no longer suffer in silence. Bovrath Building Brigade will lead this revolution and unless and until our rights are restored to us, until we get our fair share of Gaumutra, we will not withdraw our movement, whatever may be the costs.”
He promised that if people vote him to power he will assure that a separate state of Bovrath with total autonomy is established, where everyone will get large quantities of Gaumutra at a low price. This state will be a utopian paradise with everyone getting their fair share of Gaumutra and nobody getting discriminated.

Times of India, 10th October 2012, Bovinegalore
In a fresh controversy, the Bovernataka government has shut down the GG pipelines which carry the Gaumutra to the neighboring state of Bovainadu. This has sparked a fresh dispute among the two states. Reports indicate that the Bovernataka government is planning to use this shutdown as a weapon in negotiations over Bavory river water sharing.
As Bovernataka enjoys a surplus of Gaumutra it is a big supplier of the fluid to the network and much of the supplies to Bovainadu go through and from Bovernataka. This disruption in supply might hit Bovainadu farmers hard ahead of approaching Rabi season. It is expected that the centre will soon interfere to make sure that the ongoing dispute is resolved soon and farmers will not have to bear any damage.
Times of India, 11th October 2012, Bovinnai
Reacting to the closure of supplies of Gaumutra through pipelines from Bovernataka, chief minister has called for a complete change in farming techniques and to move to chemical insecticides and pesticides. He said that using cow-urine as insecticide is actually an Aryan tradition and custom without it being supported by any scientific proof. He says that he believes in science and does not believe that cow is a special animal sent by God for humans.
He further stated that he had opposed Bovainadu’s conversion to using Gaumutra instead of chemical insecticides and pesticides. He believed that this was one more Aryan conspiracy by North Indians to control the south and destroy its way of life. He will not allow or let such Aryan conspiracies against his people succeed.
He further stated that his government, instead of bowing down to these threats and pressure tactics will soon come up with tax-free zones where chemical companies will be allowed to set up factories for making insecticides. He said that science alone is solution provider to our problems, not some mumbo-jumbo cow-pee stuff. He said cow-pee is cow-pee only. It is not holy or something gifted by God. There is not much difference between it and urine of any other animal. This is all Brahmanical and Aryan propaganda.